Population Attributable Risk (PAR) of Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD) Risk Factors; Bayesian Methods

   Background & Objective: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the main cause of morbidity and mortality in most countries. By identifying the population attributable risk (PAR) of the main risk factors of CVDs, the overall effect of various exposures on a population can be determined; the findings could be used in CVD prevention. The present study aimed to explore the PAR of some factors, including physical exercise, hypertension, obesity, high cholesterol level, low-density lipoprotein (LDL), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), triglyceride (TG), cigarette, hookah smoking, and drug and alcohol abuse, for CVDs.  Materials & Methods: This study was done in Yazd Province, Iran. The PAR of the above-mentioned factors were assessed. The used data were obtained from the first stage of the Shahedieh Cohort Study, conducted on over 10 000 residents (aged 35-70 years) of Shahedieh and annexed cities. PAR and the related Bayesian credible interval were calculated using R 3.4.3 software.  Results: Of 9967 studied subjects, 7.95% had CVD. The most usual risk factors for CVDs were inadequate physical exercise and abdominal obesity (waist-to-hip ratio [WHR]). Age was the strongest determinant of CVD. PAR for inadequate physical exercise was 25.48% in women and 14.14 % in men; WHR PAR was 46.93% in women and 31.42 in men.  Conclusion: Age cannot be controlled, so that CVDs are mainly attributed to high blood pressure. Therefore, blood pressure control should be considered as a primary strategy to reduce CVD incidence.